Nba Betting Tips Telegram
2021年7月9日Register here: http://gg.gg/vbe4i
With Michigan legal sports betting activating, Michigan residents can begin placing legal, online Detroit Pistons bets as of Friday, January 22.
*Betting Tips Nba
*Nba Betting Tips Today
Nba betting tips ats Our betting tips ATS are available everyday, and hit us up you have any questions about NBA betting sites, or just some plain chat. Our NBA tips are made the morning of gameday, so adjust your selections should markets change. Free NBA Betting Tips. View in Telegram. Preview channel. If you have Telegram, you can view and join. Josh Lloyd from Basketball Monster will be providing expert NBA betting tips for the entire 2020/21 season. Utilising projections from Basketball Monster, Josh will provide free NBA picks for the big NBA Games on Wednesdays and Fridays. Check out Basketball Monster and the Locked On Fantasy Basketball Podcast for more from Josh. Pinnacle betting tips Channel. Subscribers: new. New Telegram channel with free Pinnacle football predictions. Pinnacle is the word leading bookmaker which allows winners and didn’t close accounts or cancel bets like Bet365, 1xbet and other bookmakers. Pinnacle has the strongest betting line, so winning here is much more difficult.
New to sports betting? SportsbookWire has you covered with a sports betting 101 guide to NBA betting, covering the money line, against the spread, Over/Under and mobile betting.
Be sure to sign up at BetMGM Sportsbook for their risk-free offer for new sports-betting customers within Michigan.How to bet on the Pistons: Bet typesMoney line (ML) NBA betting
The money line is the simplest and quickest way to get action on any NBA game. Each team is assigned odds representing an implied win probability for the game. Odds will generally range from -500 for a favorite up to +500 for underdogs, but they can extend further in either direction for more lopsided matchups.
The standings, recent success, injuries and public betting action are all weighed into the odds. Odds and lines can shift throughout the day based on injury reports or lopsided action on one team.Against the spread (ATS) NBA betting
Spread betting is the most popular and most consistently profitable way to get action when betting basketball. Instead of a lopsided money line, the favorite is assigned a number of points by which it needs to win the game in order to cover the spread. If the underdog stays within that number of points in a loss or pulls off the outright upset, their side of the bet will win.
Odds are generally equal on either side of the line and will range from -130 to +130.
Load up on sugar in Sweet Bonanza™, the 6×5, pays anywhere, tumbling videoslot. The more candies you hit, the more you get in the tumbling feature. Hit or buy the free spins feature for high multipliers and big wins! Sweet bonanza bonus buy free.
Example: Let’s say the Pistons are 4.5-point favorites (-4.5) against the Charlotte Hornets. If the Pistons win by 5 or more points, their side of the bet will cash. If the Hornets (+4.5) lose by 4 or fewer points or win the game, their side of the bet pays out.Over/Under (O/U) NBA betting
Over/Under betting in basketball is considered much more difficult than in football, hockey, or even baseball. Streaky shooting, surprising player usage or foul trouble all create volatility in predicting the final score of a game.
Game totals typically range from 210.5 to 240.5 for the combined point totals of both teams. A total below a line of 210.5 would cash Under tickets and a total of 211 or more points cashes Over tickets.
Like the spread, odds are generally equal on both sides at conservative numbers ranging from -130 to +130.Attention Michigan residents!
Michigan betting is now legal online.
Get some action on the Detroit Pistons or any NBA matchup with a legal, online bet at BetMGMin CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN and WV. New customer offer: Risk-free first bet up to $500, paid in free bets. Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!How to bet on the Pistons: NBA futures
Instead of betting on a specific game, get some action on the Pistons’ 2020-21 season as a whole or on certain players like PF Blake Griffin. NBA future betting to win the NBA Championship can range from +250 for a favorite like the Los Angeles Lakers to the Pistons’ +50000 long-shot odds.
At +50000, the Pistons have an implied win probability of just 0.20%, but a $10 bet would return a profit of $5,000 if they pull it off.Betting Tips Nba
Player futures exist for end-of-season awards like MVP or Defensive Player of the Year.How to bet on the Pistons: Live/mobile betting
BetMGM has an excellent sports-betting mobile app that allows Pistons fans to get some action on a game from the opening tip to the dying minutes. Odds and lines adjust throughout the game to reflect the score or current events such as scoring streaks or which players are on the court.
Also see:Bet 101 – How to bet on Detroit Red Wings for beginner bettors
Following along with the game and knowing which team truly has the upper hand at any one moment can be a great way to get some value, i.e., if the pregame favorite were to get into some early foul trouble.
Get some action on the Detroit Pistons or other NBA teams by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
Of the four major American sports, the NBA is still regarded as the easiest to predict on a nightly basis. This perceived predictability is a double-edged sword; on one side, it’s nice to be able to handicap a matchup on your own and be fairly accurate more often than not. On the other side, the bookmakers are close to or spot on with their opening lines with more regularity than we’d desire.
Still, betting on NBA basketball offers great profit potential to those who know how to navigate this unique betting landscape. One big key to staying profitable in NBA betting is to understand how the lines are made and what they mean. Staying sharp in this area will allow you to find spots where the lines are off and ready to be hammered, and also when to stay away, which is a big skill in keeping a good margin in NBA betting.
Our ultimate NBA betting strategy guide comes directly from experts who have put their money where their mouths are and have made their livelihood as advantage bettors for years. They’re happy to share their insights and expertise to give you helpful strategies to improve your NBA betting prospects. Whether you’re new to NBA betting or you’re a seasoned gambler looking for a way to sharpen your basketball betting acumen, we’re very confident that you’ll find our tips useful.
Our guide is broken down into sections to help give you an easier read and help make things easy to find if you ever need to come back and get a refresher on a particular topic. Good to go? Let’s get started.I. The BasicsNba Betting Tips Today
These basic skills and strategies lay the groundwork for solid and informed NBA betting. You always want to have a good foundation to start with, and these tips help lay that groundwork. You might find some of these tips to be obvious, but simple disciplines go a long way. In the long run, keeping your betting game on the rails is one of the biggest factors that will separate you from winning and losing significant units of money.
While some of the tips in this section can be applied to most other forms of sports betting, they are listed here because of their unique value to betting the NBA.Make a Bankroll Management Plan
Most folks budget when it comes to basic stuff like food or housing, but for whatever reason, they completely abandon this concept when it comes to gambling. But the bottom line is this: if you want to be able to gamble consistently and win, you have to have some basic bankroll management.
How you keep tabs on your betting bankroll is up to you; we’re not trying to force financial advice upon you. But NBA betting can be very intensive, and there is a lot of action to be had each night. To keep from hemorrhaging cash in a short amount of time, you want to have a good plan for what your overall bankroll is and what your standard bet will be based on the balance.
No matter how basic your method may be, having a way to keep an eye on your bankroll will help keep you from going off the rails with huge bets that could cripple you if they miss. You’ll also be more likely to avoid the temptation of chasing losses. A good plan is the best way to stay in the pocket with your betting system and find out what works and what doesn’t over an extended period of time.Stay Informed on Player Injury and Rest Updates
There is no worse feeling than playing a betting line you think is way off base, only to realize after your loss that the line was “juicy” because a star player on the team you bet was out for the night with an injury or was being rested. Not only do you feel like a square for losing, but you feel regret because you know you could have made a better decision simply by checking out the injury updates.
This kind of stuff happens all the time, and it’s just a black hole for your bankroll. Please make sure you’re staying up to the minute on personal news when betting. In addition to knowing who’s in or out of a game, make sure you have the latest on things like minute restrictions or if a guy is playing banged-up and won’t be as productive. Incorporate the information however you wish; just make sure that you have it in the first place. Don’t bet blind.
We’re not blowing smoke just to make a point; this is a huge priority for any serious NBA bettor. This is because injury news about players often doesn’t break until very close to game time – sometimes mere minutes before tip-off! You must stay apprised of injuries or other happenings all the way to game time, and our advice to you is to place your bet as close to tip-off as you can.
This might sound cumbersome, but not only is there amazing value in saving money on a play you would have otherwise made, but you also will find easy profit opportunities betting the other way thanks to breaking news. There’s a reason the big sharps have little closed-circuit TV monitors in their private booths – they relish the opportunity to race a ticket in before the book can change a line or take it off the board altogether.
When news breaks, it takes time for books to adjust the lines. The sharks take advantage of this. The fish miss out or get eaten alive because they didn’t know the facts. Don’t be a fish; BE A SHARK!Pay Attention to Schedules and Schedule Tracking
The premise is simple; teams don’t perform as well when they’re fatigued as they do when they’re fresh. Much like the injury tracking above, it’s also good common sense to make sure your betting horse isn’t limping into the arena on tired legs. But what was long held by sharps as a hunch has now become a legit game changer in the age of data. We’re sure some big shot at the books played a role as well, but the bottom line is that schedule tracking is a big thing to watch out for now.
What is schedule tracking, you ask? Schedule tracking is looking at a team’s schedule and looking for rough patches in the schedule that would lead the team to be tired or fatigued. The hope is that on these particular games, the betting line fails to reflect this crucial factoid and a team is overvalued, giving great value to a bet against that team. This is especially valuable for teams that the betting public likes no matter the case, as books have to keep the lines high to keep their action balanced.
There are multiple angles to look for when using scheduling to influence your betting. The most well-known example of a schedule-based betting trend is the “back-to-back,” which is the popular way of saying that a team will play on consecutive nights. Back-to-backs are a part of most NBA daily betting analyses when it’s in play, especially when the particular team’s games are on the road or have a road/home combo.
However, simply finding a team on a back-to-back is not enough to guarantee profit on your play. Like we said earlier, this is a majorly tracked trend now. The bookmakers now know that this kind of money will come in big and they’ve adjusted accordingly. Staying that crucial step ahead will require a bit more keen strategy. Thankfully, we’ve got just that in the next section, which focuses on skills you will want to incorporate specifically for NBA betting.II. NBA Betting: Get the Edge
Having basic betting principles down is a great way to ensure that you’re not simply throwing your money away. Beyond that, you’ll want to have some skills specifically tailored to the sport you’re betting. Below are some of the strategies and tactics our experts employ to find the best lines and stay up on the books. We’re happy to share, and we encourage you to use them and improve upon them at home!Read the Bookmaker
One of the most important principles Sun Tzu teaches in The Art of War is to know your enemy, and that’s what this tip is all about. Learning to think about the bookmaker’s intentions when putting out a line is definitely one of those “separator” skills – by that we mean that it’s one of those defining betting skills that separate the consistently profitable pros from the losing recreational bettors.
This is a “game behind the game” tip, but it’s extremely important in NBA betting (just as much as in NFL betting, in our opinion). The principle is to ask a very simple question: why did the book open the line at that number? Expert sharps consider it second nature to ask this question, but most folks never even think to.
We could list examples for days, but let’s discuss one to show you what we mean:
A and B are two evenly matched teams playing in a highly anticipated game where a lot of betting volume is expected. Team A is at home. After all the factors like home court advantage and such are factored in, the game is a true pick’em. So, what do you think the opening line will be?
Team A – (-1)
That’s right; if you thought zero, you’re wrong.
In this example, we said the game is a true pick’em, and it is. So why did the book open the line at -1? Great question! Now you’re learning.
This is a common example of the public’s inclination to bet the home team in true coin-flip situations. Another common perception (even amongst experienced NBA bettors) that are leveraged by the books in this example is that if a team is going to win, they’ll likely win by more than one point, so it’s worth it to lay the point and pay less vig than you would on a moneyline bet.Congratulations. You’ve just been lured into a trap.
Bookmakers capitalize on these common perceptions by putting pick’em games out at Home Team (-1) or (-1.5) to make the public pay a premium on their habit. They’ll also put out Home Team (-1) opening lines even if the home team should open as a 1-point underdog.
The reason? If public perception is that the game is a flip, the bookmakers know they’re going to receive more bets on the home team. Therefore, they want that side of the action to pay the vig so they make their profit on the percentages in the long run. And overall, they do just that. So long as the game outcomes fall on the 50/50 line, they make money on the point and all the times the supposed “dog” comes through. You profit in this scenario by avoiding the trap of hammering what you think is a betting favorite only laying a point at home.
We aren’t saying that every opening line out there is a trap by the books. What we are saying is that by asking yourself what the book is trying to accomplish with a particular betting line (or price) and why the lines are where they are, you’ll find great opportunities all over the board on a regular basis. Find the Shaded Lines
“Line shading” is a term referring to when a bookmaker anticipates heavy betting action on one side of a matchup and moves an opening betting line toward that side. Line shades can be small (one point) or large (3+ points) and are a great profit-seeking area of betting if you know how to find them.
Let’s say the Boston Celtics go on a hot streak (both in wins and ATS) that gets a lot of media attention. In such a case, more public bettors will start to come in wanting to ride the wave. To keep their betting handle balanced, the books respond by inflating lines involving the Celtics by a couple of points. So if the Celtics were supposed to be a (-9) favorite in a game, the books will put them out at (-11) instead.
There is nothing wrong with what the bookmaker is doing here. If the Celtics stay hot, the books could lose a lot of money each game from lopsided betting on them. So shading the line is the correct move on their part so long as it evens out their action. They can discourage enough sharp bets on the Celtics who want to bet for value, and they make the public take a bigger risk of a dog cover.
In scenarios like these, the value play is often (but not always) to bet against the shaded line and take advantage of those underdog points. Both the books and the sophisticated bettors know that the line has been swung to disfavor a cover by the Celtics. It’s literally a gift to you. Take it! More often than not, the public will be disappointed, while the sharps enjoy a nice score and keep on trucking. The bookmaker is satisfied that they got enough action on both sides, and all is well in the betting world.
The only downside with this sort of play is that it is based on short-term perceptions, so you can’t really plan for it. The only real way to find these opportunities is to keep up with NBA news and events and build up a bit of a bettor’s intuition of when the masses have caused a line shade.
Another great scenario where books shade lines hard is on second-half lines where the action got super lopsided in the first half. This is covered a little bit later in the guide in the Middling Second-Half Bets section.
The overall principle here is to remember that line shading can happen for any reason. Much like the first section talking about reading the bookmaker’s intentions, a big part of finding a shaded line is to try to find out if the book is trying to encourage or discourage action on a certain side. The best way to do that is to stay informed.Fade the Public
We’re sure you see this a lot; it’s part of almost any expert betting advice on any sport that’s out there. Well, it’s there for good reason! The books are there to make money, and they make money by forcing the public to pay a premium for their popular notions.
Even if a notion has merit, it will lose value in the betting market by way of having everyone doing it. It’s not that being with the public is always wrong; it’s just that in this business, it’
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With Michigan legal sports betting activating, Michigan residents can begin placing legal, online Detroit Pistons bets as of Friday, January 22.
*Betting Tips Nba
*Nba Betting Tips Today
Nba betting tips ats Our betting tips ATS are available everyday, and hit us up you have any questions about NBA betting sites, or just some plain chat. Our NBA tips are made the morning of gameday, so adjust your selections should markets change. Free NBA Betting Tips. View in Telegram. Preview channel. If you have Telegram, you can view and join. Josh Lloyd from Basketball Monster will be providing expert NBA betting tips for the entire 2020/21 season. Utilising projections from Basketball Monster, Josh will provide free NBA picks for the big NBA Games on Wednesdays and Fridays. Check out Basketball Monster and the Locked On Fantasy Basketball Podcast for more from Josh. Pinnacle betting tips Channel. Subscribers: new. New Telegram channel with free Pinnacle football predictions. Pinnacle is the word leading bookmaker which allows winners and didn’t close accounts or cancel bets like Bet365, 1xbet and other bookmakers. Pinnacle has the strongest betting line, so winning here is much more difficult.
New to sports betting? SportsbookWire has you covered with a sports betting 101 guide to NBA betting, covering the money line, against the spread, Over/Under and mobile betting.
Be sure to sign up at BetMGM Sportsbook for their risk-free offer for new sports-betting customers within Michigan.How to bet on the Pistons: Bet typesMoney line (ML) NBA betting
The money line is the simplest and quickest way to get action on any NBA game. Each team is assigned odds representing an implied win probability for the game. Odds will generally range from -500 for a favorite up to +500 for underdogs, but they can extend further in either direction for more lopsided matchups.
The standings, recent success, injuries and public betting action are all weighed into the odds. Odds and lines can shift throughout the day based on injury reports or lopsided action on one team.Against the spread (ATS) NBA betting
Spread betting is the most popular and most consistently profitable way to get action when betting basketball. Instead of a lopsided money line, the favorite is assigned a number of points by which it needs to win the game in order to cover the spread. If the underdog stays within that number of points in a loss or pulls off the outright upset, their side of the bet will win.
Odds are generally equal on either side of the line and will range from -130 to +130.
Load up on sugar in Sweet Bonanza™, the 6×5, pays anywhere, tumbling videoslot. The more candies you hit, the more you get in the tumbling feature. Hit or buy the free spins feature for high multipliers and big wins! Sweet bonanza bonus buy free.
Example: Let’s say the Pistons are 4.5-point favorites (-4.5) against the Charlotte Hornets. If the Pistons win by 5 or more points, their side of the bet will cash. If the Hornets (+4.5) lose by 4 or fewer points or win the game, their side of the bet pays out.Over/Under (O/U) NBA betting
Over/Under betting in basketball is considered much more difficult than in football, hockey, or even baseball. Streaky shooting, surprising player usage or foul trouble all create volatility in predicting the final score of a game.
Game totals typically range from 210.5 to 240.5 for the combined point totals of both teams. A total below a line of 210.5 would cash Under tickets and a total of 211 or more points cashes Over tickets.
Like the spread, odds are generally equal on both sides at conservative numbers ranging from -130 to +130.Attention Michigan residents!
Michigan betting is now legal online.
Get some action on the Detroit Pistons or any NBA matchup with a legal, online bet at BetMGMin CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN and WV. New customer offer: Risk-free first bet up to $500, paid in free bets. Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!How to bet on the Pistons: NBA futures
Instead of betting on a specific game, get some action on the Pistons’ 2020-21 season as a whole or on certain players like PF Blake Griffin. NBA future betting to win the NBA Championship can range from +250 for a favorite like the Los Angeles Lakers to the Pistons’ +50000 long-shot odds.
At +50000, the Pistons have an implied win probability of just 0.20%, but a $10 bet would return a profit of $5,000 if they pull it off.Betting Tips Nba
Player futures exist for end-of-season awards like MVP or Defensive Player of the Year.How to bet on the Pistons: Live/mobile betting
BetMGM has an excellent sports-betting mobile app that allows Pistons fans to get some action on a game from the opening tip to the dying minutes. Odds and lines adjust throughout the game to reflect the score or current events such as scoring streaks or which players are on the court.
Also see:Bet 101 – How to bet on Detroit Red Wings for beginner bettors
Following along with the game and knowing which team truly has the upper hand at any one moment can be a great way to get some value, i.e., if the pregame favorite were to get into some early foul trouble.
Get some action on the Detroit Pistons or other NBA teams by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
Of the four major American sports, the NBA is still regarded as the easiest to predict on a nightly basis. This perceived predictability is a double-edged sword; on one side, it’s nice to be able to handicap a matchup on your own and be fairly accurate more often than not. On the other side, the bookmakers are close to or spot on with their opening lines with more regularity than we’d desire.
Still, betting on NBA basketball offers great profit potential to those who know how to navigate this unique betting landscape. One big key to staying profitable in NBA betting is to understand how the lines are made and what they mean. Staying sharp in this area will allow you to find spots where the lines are off and ready to be hammered, and also when to stay away, which is a big skill in keeping a good margin in NBA betting.
Our ultimate NBA betting strategy guide comes directly from experts who have put their money where their mouths are and have made their livelihood as advantage bettors for years. They’re happy to share their insights and expertise to give you helpful strategies to improve your NBA betting prospects. Whether you’re new to NBA betting or you’re a seasoned gambler looking for a way to sharpen your basketball betting acumen, we’re very confident that you’ll find our tips useful.
Our guide is broken down into sections to help give you an easier read and help make things easy to find if you ever need to come back and get a refresher on a particular topic. Good to go? Let’s get started.I. The BasicsNba Betting Tips Today
These basic skills and strategies lay the groundwork for solid and informed NBA betting. You always want to have a good foundation to start with, and these tips help lay that groundwork. You might find some of these tips to be obvious, but simple disciplines go a long way. In the long run, keeping your betting game on the rails is one of the biggest factors that will separate you from winning and losing significant units of money.
While some of the tips in this section can be applied to most other forms of sports betting, they are listed here because of their unique value to betting the NBA.Make a Bankroll Management Plan
Most folks budget when it comes to basic stuff like food or housing, but for whatever reason, they completely abandon this concept when it comes to gambling. But the bottom line is this: if you want to be able to gamble consistently and win, you have to have some basic bankroll management.
How you keep tabs on your betting bankroll is up to you; we’re not trying to force financial advice upon you. But NBA betting can be very intensive, and there is a lot of action to be had each night. To keep from hemorrhaging cash in a short amount of time, you want to have a good plan for what your overall bankroll is and what your standard bet will be based on the balance.
No matter how basic your method may be, having a way to keep an eye on your bankroll will help keep you from going off the rails with huge bets that could cripple you if they miss. You’ll also be more likely to avoid the temptation of chasing losses. A good plan is the best way to stay in the pocket with your betting system and find out what works and what doesn’t over an extended period of time.Stay Informed on Player Injury and Rest Updates
There is no worse feeling than playing a betting line you think is way off base, only to realize after your loss that the line was “juicy” because a star player on the team you bet was out for the night with an injury or was being rested. Not only do you feel like a square for losing, but you feel regret because you know you could have made a better decision simply by checking out the injury updates.
This kind of stuff happens all the time, and it’s just a black hole for your bankroll. Please make sure you’re staying up to the minute on personal news when betting. In addition to knowing who’s in or out of a game, make sure you have the latest on things like minute restrictions or if a guy is playing banged-up and won’t be as productive. Incorporate the information however you wish; just make sure that you have it in the first place. Don’t bet blind.
We’re not blowing smoke just to make a point; this is a huge priority for any serious NBA bettor. This is because injury news about players often doesn’t break until very close to game time – sometimes mere minutes before tip-off! You must stay apprised of injuries or other happenings all the way to game time, and our advice to you is to place your bet as close to tip-off as you can.
This might sound cumbersome, but not only is there amazing value in saving money on a play you would have otherwise made, but you also will find easy profit opportunities betting the other way thanks to breaking news. There’s a reason the big sharps have little closed-circuit TV monitors in their private booths – they relish the opportunity to race a ticket in before the book can change a line or take it off the board altogether.
When news breaks, it takes time for books to adjust the lines. The sharks take advantage of this. The fish miss out or get eaten alive because they didn’t know the facts. Don’t be a fish; BE A SHARK!Pay Attention to Schedules and Schedule Tracking
The premise is simple; teams don’t perform as well when they’re fatigued as they do when they’re fresh. Much like the injury tracking above, it’s also good common sense to make sure your betting horse isn’t limping into the arena on tired legs. But what was long held by sharps as a hunch has now become a legit game changer in the age of data. We’re sure some big shot at the books played a role as well, but the bottom line is that schedule tracking is a big thing to watch out for now.
What is schedule tracking, you ask? Schedule tracking is looking at a team’s schedule and looking for rough patches in the schedule that would lead the team to be tired or fatigued. The hope is that on these particular games, the betting line fails to reflect this crucial factoid and a team is overvalued, giving great value to a bet against that team. This is especially valuable for teams that the betting public likes no matter the case, as books have to keep the lines high to keep their action balanced.
There are multiple angles to look for when using scheduling to influence your betting. The most well-known example of a schedule-based betting trend is the “back-to-back,” which is the popular way of saying that a team will play on consecutive nights. Back-to-backs are a part of most NBA daily betting analyses when it’s in play, especially when the particular team’s games are on the road or have a road/home combo.
However, simply finding a team on a back-to-back is not enough to guarantee profit on your play. Like we said earlier, this is a majorly tracked trend now. The bookmakers now know that this kind of money will come in big and they’ve adjusted accordingly. Staying that crucial step ahead will require a bit more keen strategy. Thankfully, we’ve got just that in the next section, which focuses on skills you will want to incorporate specifically for NBA betting.II. NBA Betting: Get the Edge
Having basic betting principles down is a great way to ensure that you’re not simply throwing your money away. Beyond that, you’ll want to have some skills specifically tailored to the sport you’re betting. Below are some of the strategies and tactics our experts employ to find the best lines and stay up on the books. We’re happy to share, and we encourage you to use them and improve upon them at home!Read the Bookmaker
One of the most important principles Sun Tzu teaches in The Art of War is to know your enemy, and that’s what this tip is all about. Learning to think about the bookmaker’s intentions when putting out a line is definitely one of those “separator” skills – by that we mean that it’s one of those defining betting skills that separate the consistently profitable pros from the losing recreational bettors.
This is a “game behind the game” tip, but it’s extremely important in NBA betting (just as much as in NFL betting, in our opinion). The principle is to ask a very simple question: why did the book open the line at that number? Expert sharps consider it second nature to ask this question, but most folks never even think to.
We could list examples for days, but let’s discuss one to show you what we mean:
A and B are two evenly matched teams playing in a highly anticipated game where a lot of betting volume is expected. Team A is at home. After all the factors like home court advantage and such are factored in, the game is a true pick’em. So, what do you think the opening line will be?
Team A – (-1)
That’s right; if you thought zero, you’re wrong.
In this example, we said the game is a true pick’em, and it is. So why did the book open the line at -1? Great question! Now you’re learning.
This is a common example of the public’s inclination to bet the home team in true coin-flip situations. Another common perception (even amongst experienced NBA bettors) that are leveraged by the books in this example is that if a team is going to win, they’ll likely win by more than one point, so it’s worth it to lay the point and pay less vig than you would on a moneyline bet.Congratulations. You’ve just been lured into a trap.
Bookmakers capitalize on these common perceptions by putting pick’em games out at Home Team (-1) or (-1.5) to make the public pay a premium on their habit. They’ll also put out Home Team (-1) opening lines even if the home team should open as a 1-point underdog.
The reason? If public perception is that the game is a flip, the bookmakers know they’re going to receive more bets on the home team. Therefore, they want that side of the action to pay the vig so they make their profit on the percentages in the long run. And overall, they do just that. So long as the game outcomes fall on the 50/50 line, they make money on the point and all the times the supposed “dog” comes through. You profit in this scenario by avoiding the trap of hammering what you think is a betting favorite only laying a point at home.
We aren’t saying that every opening line out there is a trap by the books. What we are saying is that by asking yourself what the book is trying to accomplish with a particular betting line (or price) and why the lines are where they are, you’ll find great opportunities all over the board on a regular basis. Find the Shaded Lines
“Line shading” is a term referring to when a bookmaker anticipates heavy betting action on one side of a matchup and moves an opening betting line toward that side. Line shades can be small (one point) or large (3+ points) and are a great profit-seeking area of betting if you know how to find them.
Let’s say the Boston Celtics go on a hot streak (both in wins and ATS) that gets a lot of media attention. In such a case, more public bettors will start to come in wanting to ride the wave. To keep their betting handle balanced, the books respond by inflating lines involving the Celtics by a couple of points. So if the Celtics were supposed to be a (-9) favorite in a game, the books will put them out at (-11) instead.
There is nothing wrong with what the bookmaker is doing here. If the Celtics stay hot, the books could lose a lot of money each game from lopsided betting on them. So shading the line is the correct move on their part so long as it evens out their action. They can discourage enough sharp bets on the Celtics who want to bet for value, and they make the public take a bigger risk of a dog cover.
In scenarios like these, the value play is often (but not always) to bet against the shaded line and take advantage of those underdog points. Both the books and the sophisticated bettors know that the line has been swung to disfavor a cover by the Celtics. It’s literally a gift to you. Take it! More often than not, the public will be disappointed, while the sharps enjoy a nice score and keep on trucking. The bookmaker is satisfied that they got enough action on both sides, and all is well in the betting world.
The only downside with this sort of play is that it is based on short-term perceptions, so you can’t really plan for it. The only real way to find these opportunities is to keep up with NBA news and events and build up a bit of a bettor’s intuition of when the masses have caused a line shade.
Another great scenario where books shade lines hard is on second-half lines where the action got super lopsided in the first half. This is covered a little bit later in the guide in the Middling Second-Half Bets section.
The overall principle here is to remember that line shading can happen for any reason. Much like the first section talking about reading the bookmaker’s intentions, a big part of finding a shaded line is to try to find out if the book is trying to encourage or discourage action on a certain side. The best way to do that is to stay informed.Fade the Public
We’re sure you see this a lot; it’s part of almost any expert betting advice on any sport that’s out there. Well, it’s there for good reason! The books are there to make money, and they make money by forcing the public to pay a premium for their popular notions.
Even if a notion has merit, it will lose value in the betting market by way of having everyone doing it. It’s not that being with the public is always wrong; it’s just that in this business, it’
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